Mixing
Is this a good algorithm for calculating profit with certain random events?
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I'm working on a game, and am trying to solve the problem of simulating offline play. Below I've simplified the game and provided the solution I'm considering.
Propose a game where you have a number of uniquely identified machines, and you generate $1/minute for each machine you have running. Assume money is awarded at one minute intervals, and that before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred. We use failure A's probability to see if that occurred, B's to see if that occurred, etc. (the order of evaluation is randomised so no failure is biased). If any of these random calculations end up succeeding, the machine is put into a failed state, and generates nothing indefinitely.
Now assume we want to simulate five minutes of this game at once. For each machine:
- Randomise the order of the failures
- Use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred. The probability would be five times more likely.
- If we find a failure that occurred, randomly generate the time it occurred. The distribution makes it equally likely to occur on any minute.
- Calculate the profit from that machine using the number of minutes before the failure minute
Does the "live" per minute calculation get simulated perfectly by the retrospective one?
statistics
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'm working on a game, and am trying to solve the problem of simulating offline play. Below I've simplified the game and provided the solution I'm considering.
Propose a game where you have a number of uniquely identified machines, and you generate $1/minute for each machine you have running. Assume money is awarded at one minute intervals, and that before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred. We use failure A's probability to see if that occurred, B's to see if that occurred, etc. (the order of evaluation is randomised so no failure is biased). If any of these random calculations end up succeeding, the machine is put into a failed state, and generates nothing indefinitely.
Now assume we want to simulate five minutes of this game at once. For each machine:
- Randomise the order of the failures
- Use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred. The probability would be five times more likely.
- If we find a failure that occurred, randomly generate the time it occurred. The distribution makes it equally likely to occur on any minute.
- Calculate the profit from that machine using the number of minutes before the failure minute
Does the "live" per minute calculation get simulated perfectly by the retrospective one?
statistics
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
It's unclear what you want, and the rules for the whole thing.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 22:43
$begingroup$
Could you give a few examples of what's missing? I tried really hard to give as much detail as I could.
$endgroup$
– Oliver Dunk
Jan 22 at 22:57
$begingroup$
Here are a few of the unclear parts: "before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred." - by allocation I assume sending the money (does this take time or does it happen instantaneously at the end of every minute). How long before that do you check? How many ('a number') of failures do you check for? It is not clear how often these failures may occur. Is it a set of failure states each having its own probability? What do you mean by 'order' of failures. What do you mean by 'use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred', etc.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 23:29
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'm working on a game, and am trying to solve the problem of simulating offline play. Below I've simplified the game and provided the solution I'm considering.
Propose a game where you have a number of uniquely identified machines, and you generate $1/minute for each machine you have running. Assume money is awarded at one minute intervals, and that before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred. We use failure A's probability to see if that occurred, B's to see if that occurred, etc. (the order of evaluation is randomised so no failure is biased). If any of these random calculations end up succeeding, the machine is put into a failed state, and generates nothing indefinitely.
Now assume we want to simulate five minutes of this game at once. For each machine:
- Randomise the order of the failures
- Use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred. The probability would be five times more likely.
- If we find a failure that occurred, randomly generate the time it occurred. The distribution makes it equally likely to occur on any minute.
- Calculate the profit from that machine using the number of minutes before the failure minute
Does the "live" per minute calculation get simulated perfectly by the retrospective one?
statistics
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
$endgroup$
I'm working on a game, and am trying to solve the problem of simulating offline play. Below I've simplified the game and provided the solution I'm considering.
Propose a game where you have a number of uniquely identified machines, and you generate $1/minute for each machine you have running. Assume money is awarded at one minute intervals, and that before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred. We use failure A's probability to see if that occurred, B's to see if that occurred, etc. (the order of evaluation is randomised so no failure is biased). If any of these random calculations end up succeeding, the machine is put into a failed state, and generates nothing indefinitely.
Now assume we want to simulate five minutes of this game at once. For each machine:
- Randomise the order of the failures
- Use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred. The probability would be five times more likely.
- If we find a failure that occurred, randomly generate the time it occurred. The distribution makes it equally likely to occur on any minute.
- Calculate the profit from that machine using the number of minutes before the failure minute
Does the "live" per minute calculation get simulated perfectly by the retrospective one?
statistics
statistics
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
asked Jan 22 at 22:06
Oliver DunkOliver Dunk
213
213
$begingroup$
It's unclear what you want, and the rules for the whole thing.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 22:43
$begingroup$
Could you give a few examples of what's missing? I tried really hard to give as much detail as I could.
$endgroup$
– Oliver Dunk
Jan 22 at 22:57
$begingroup$
Here are a few of the unclear parts: "before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred." - by allocation I assume sending the money (does this take time or does it happen instantaneously at the end of every minute). How long before that do you check? How many ('a number') of failures do you check for? It is not clear how often these failures may occur. Is it a set of failure states each having its own probability? What do you mean by 'order' of failures. What do you mean by 'use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred', etc.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 23:29
add a comment |
$begingroup$
It's unclear what you want, and the rules for the whole thing.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 22:43
$begingroup$
Could you give a few examples of what's missing? I tried really hard to give as much detail as I could.
$endgroup$
– Oliver Dunk
Jan 22 at 22:57
$begingroup$
Here are a few of the unclear parts: "before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred." - by allocation I assume sending the money (does this take time or does it happen instantaneously at the end of every minute). How long before that do you check? How many ('a number') of failures do you check for? It is not clear how often these failures may occur. Is it a set of failure states each having its own probability? What do you mean by 'order' of failures. What do you mean by 'use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred', etc.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 23:29
$begingroup$
It's unclear what you want, and the rules for the whole thing.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 22:43
$begingroup$
It's unclear what you want, and the rules for the whole thing.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 22:43
$begingroup$
Could you give a few examples of what's missing? I tried really hard to give as much detail as I could.
$endgroup$
– Oliver Dunk
Jan 22 at 22:57
$begingroup$
Could you give a few examples of what's missing? I tried really hard to give as much detail as I could.
$endgroup$
– Oliver Dunk
Jan 22 at 22:57
$begingroup$
Here are a few of the unclear parts: "before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred." - by allocation I assume sending the money (does this take time or does it happen instantaneously at the end of every minute). How long before that do you check? How many ('a number') of failures do you check for? It is not clear how often these failures may occur. Is it a set of failure states each having its own probability? What do you mean by 'order' of failures. What do you mean by 'use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred', etc.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 23:29
$begingroup$
Here are a few of the unclear parts: "before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred." - by allocation I assume sending the money (does this take time or does it happen instantaneously at the end of every minute). How long before that do you check? How many ('a number') of failures do you check for? It is not clear how often these failures may occur. Is it a set of failure states each having its own probability? What do you mean by 'order' of failures. What do you mean by 'use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred', etc.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 23:29
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
It's unclear what you want, and the rules for the whole thing.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 22:43
$begingroup$
Could you give a few examples of what's missing? I tried really hard to give as much detail as I could.
$endgroup$
– Oliver Dunk
Jan 22 at 22:57
$begingroup$
Here are a few of the unclear parts: "before the allocation for each machine, we check to see if a number of failures have occurred." - by allocation I assume sending the money (does this take time or does it happen instantaneously at the end of every minute). How long before that do you check? How many ('a number') of failures do you check for? It is not clear how often these failures may occur. Is it a set of failure states each having its own probability? What do you mean by 'order' of failures. What do you mean by 'use a random number and distribution to see if each failure occurred', etc.
$endgroup$
– lightxbulb
Jan 22 at 23:29