Mixing
What interpretation to follow with two different probability events
$begingroup$
Let's assume we have two baseball teams A and B.
Team A will host home game between A and B
Team A has probability 90% of winning home game, while team B has probability of 60% winning away game considering observed data.
Since we want to model a probability, what should we take in considiration? If I ask, what is the prob. team A will win the match given the data, you have two possible outcomes: 90% and 40%. So which to use?
probability
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let's assume we have two baseball teams A and B.
Team A will host home game between A and B
Team A has probability 90% of winning home game, while team B has probability of 60% winning away game considering observed data.
Since we want to model a probability, what should we take in considiration? If I ask, what is the prob. team A will win the match given the data, you have two possible outcomes: 90% and 40%. So which to use?
probability
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
$endgroup$
3
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information to determine this. Clearly the data isn't specific to $A$ playing a home game against $B$ and we have no way of guessing the external variables necessary to make the adjustments.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:51
$begingroup$
I have only following: A team wins 90% of home matches, while team B wins 60% of away matches. We really can't do anything?
$endgroup$
– Stenga
Jan 15 at 19:53
1
$begingroup$
Nothing sensible. But is that really all the information you have? In any practical situation you'd have all the data about all the games. You could then look for patterns in the games each team wins or loses and try to come up with a decent model of all that. But sports probabilities are hard. One reason people spend a fortune trying to analyze them.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:59
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let's assume we have two baseball teams A and B.
Team A will host home game between A and B
Team A has probability 90% of winning home game, while team B has probability of 60% winning away game considering observed data.
Since we want to model a probability, what should we take in considiration? If I ask, what is the prob. team A will win the match given the data, you have two possible outcomes: 90% and 40%. So which to use?
probability
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
$endgroup$
Let's assume we have two baseball teams A and B.
Team A will host home game between A and B
Team A has probability 90% of winning home game, while team B has probability of 60% winning away game considering observed data.
Since we want to model a probability, what should we take in considiration? If I ask, what is the prob. team A will win the match given the data, you have two possible outcomes: 90% and 40%. So which to use?
probability
probability
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
asked Jan 15 at 19:46
StengaStenga
276
276
3
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information to determine this. Clearly the data isn't specific to $A$ playing a home game against $B$ and we have no way of guessing the external variables necessary to make the adjustments.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:51
$begingroup$
I have only following: A team wins 90% of home matches, while team B wins 60% of away matches. We really can't do anything?
$endgroup$
– Stenga
Jan 15 at 19:53
1
$begingroup$
Nothing sensible. But is that really all the information you have? In any practical situation you'd have all the data about all the games. You could then look for patterns in the games each team wins or loses and try to come up with a decent model of all that. But sports probabilities are hard. One reason people spend a fortune trying to analyze them.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:59
add a comment |
3
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information to determine this. Clearly the data isn't specific to $A$ playing a home game against $B$ and we have no way of guessing the external variables necessary to make the adjustments.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:51
$begingroup$
I have only following: A team wins 90% of home matches, while team B wins 60% of away matches. We really can't do anything?
$endgroup$
– Stenga
Jan 15 at 19:53
1
$begingroup$
Nothing sensible. But is that really all the information you have? In any practical situation you'd have all the data about all the games. You could then look for patterns in the games each team wins or loses and try to come up with a decent model of all that. But sports probabilities are hard. One reason people spend a fortune trying to analyze them.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:59
3
3
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information to determine this. Clearly the data isn't specific to $A$ playing a home game against $B$ and we have no way of guessing the external variables necessary to make the adjustments.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:51
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information to determine this. Clearly the data isn't specific to $A$ playing a home game against $B$ and we have no way of guessing the external variables necessary to make the adjustments.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:51
$begingroup$
I have only following: A team wins 90% of home matches, while team B wins 60% of away matches. We really can't do anything?
$endgroup$
– Stenga
Jan 15 at 19:53
$begingroup$
I have only following: A team wins 90% of home matches, while team B wins 60% of away matches. We really can't do anything?
$endgroup$
– Stenga
Jan 15 at 19:53
1
1
$begingroup$
Nothing sensible. But is that really all the information you have? In any practical situation you'd have all the data about all the games. You could then look for patterns in the games each team wins or loses and try to come up with a decent model of all that. But sports probabilities are hard. One reason people spend a fortune trying to analyze them.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:59
$begingroup$
Nothing sensible. But is that really all the information you have? In any practical situation you'd have all the data about all the games. You could then look for patterns in the games each team wins or loses and try to come up with a decent model of all that. But sports probabilities are hard. One reason people spend a fortune trying to analyze them.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:59
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
There isn't enough information to determine this. Clearly the data isn't specific to $A$ playing a home game against $B$ and we have no way of guessing the external variables necessary to make the adjustments.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:51
$begingroup$
I have only following: A team wins 90% of home matches, while team B wins 60% of away matches. We really can't do anything?
$endgroup$
– Stenga
Jan 15 at 19:53
1
$begingroup$
Nothing sensible. But is that really all the information you have? In any practical situation you'd have all the data about all the games. You could then look for patterns in the games each team wins or loses and try to come up with a decent model of all that. But sports probabilities are hard. One reason people spend a fortune trying to analyze them.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 15 at 19:59