Mixing
Probability of periodic event happening within time period
0
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If my web page loses connection every 20 minutes and wipes out a form that takes 15 minutes to fill out what is the probability (odds) that I will get a form filled out and submitted without being interrupted? My best-worst guess is 1-(15/20) or 25% on the basis that there is a 15/20 percent chance I will get interrupted.
Maybe: The probability of exactly one periodic event occurring in a timeframe but no accepted answer there.
probability
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
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0
$begingroup$
If my web page loses connection every 20 minutes and wipes out a form that takes 15 minutes to fill out what is the probability (odds) that I will get a form filled out and submitted without being interrupted? My best-worst guess is 1-(15/20) or 25% on the basis that there is a 15/20 percent chance I will get interrupted.
Maybe: The probability of exactly one periodic event occurring in a timeframe but no accepted answer there.
probability
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
You need to make some assumption on the distribution. Your answer would be correct on the (unlikely) assumption that the thing shuts down regularly every $20$ minutes. A more plausible assumption would be that there is a Poisson distribution here, or that the thing loses connection each minute with independent probability $frac 1{20}$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:21
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Note; I suggest doing it both ways (binomial and Poisson). The answers should be very close and you check them against each other.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:23
$begingroup$
Well, actually the current sign-in times out every 20 minutes and asks the user to sign in again and reloads the page, so yes, periodically. So, 25% is actually correct?
$endgroup$
– K.Nicholas
Jan 31 at 20:24
$begingroup$
Really? But then you need to assume that you start the task at a uniformly random point in the $20$ minute window. If that is also true, then I agree with the $25%$ since you need to start the form within $5$ minutes of sign in. But is that a plasuible assumption?
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:28
1
$begingroup$
Well, under those assumptions your solution looks good. To be fair, we can make it less artificial, if, say, we imagine that some internal setting (of which the user is unaware) is on a $20$ minute schedule and that the user's start time is entirely independent of this cycle.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:38
|
show 1 more comment
0
0
0
$begingroup$
If my web page loses connection every 20 minutes and wipes out a form that takes 15 minutes to fill out what is the probability (odds) that I will get a form filled out and submitted without being interrupted? My best-worst guess is 1-(15/20) or 25% on the basis that there is a 15/20 percent chance I will get interrupted.
Maybe: The probability of exactly one periodic event occurring in a timeframe but no accepted answer there.
probability
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
$endgroup$
If my web page loses connection every 20 minutes and wipes out a form that takes 15 minutes to fill out what is the probability (odds) that I will get a form filled out and submitted without being interrupted? My best-worst guess is 1-(15/20) or 25% on the basis that there is a 15/20 percent chance I will get interrupted.
Maybe: The probability of exactly one periodic event occurring in a timeframe but no accepted answer there.
probability
probability
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
edited Jan 31 at 20:23
K.Nicholas
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
asked Jan 31 at 20:18
K.NicholasK.Nicholas
1085
1085
$begingroup$
You need to make some assumption on the distribution. Your answer would be correct on the (unlikely) assumption that the thing shuts down regularly every $20$ minutes. A more plausible assumption would be that there is a Poisson distribution here, or that the thing loses connection each minute with independent probability $frac 1{20}$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:21
$begingroup$
Note; I suggest doing it both ways (binomial and Poisson). The answers should be very close and you check them against each other.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:23
$begingroup$
Well, actually the current sign-in times out every 20 minutes and asks the user to sign in again and reloads the page, so yes, periodically. So, 25% is actually correct?
$endgroup$
– K.Nicholas
Jan 31 at 20:24
$begingroup$
Really? But then you need to assume that you start the task at a uniformly random point in the $20$ minute window. If that is also true, then I agree with the $25%$ since you need to start the form within $5$ minutes of sign in. But is that a plasuible assumption?
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:28
1
$begingroup$
Well, under those assumptions your solution looks good. To be fair, we can make it less artificial, if, say, we imagine that some internal setting (of which the user is unaware) is on a $20$ minute schedule and that the user's start time is entirely independent of this cycle.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:38
|
show 1 more comment
$begingroup$
You need to make some assumption on the distribution. Your answer would be correct on the (unlikely) assumption that the thing shuts down regularly every $20$ minutes. A more plausible assumption would be that there is a Poisson distribution here, or that the thing loses connection each minute with independent probability $frac 1{20}$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:21
$begingroup$
Note; I suggest doing it both ways (binomial and Poisson). The answers should be very close and you check them against each other.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:23
$begingroup$
Well, actually the current sign-in times out every 20 minutes and asks the user to sign in again and reloads the page, so yes, periodically. So, 25% is actually correct?
$endgroup$
– K.Nicholas
Jan 31 at 20:24
$begingroup$
Really? But then you need to assume that you start the task at a uniformly random point in the $20$ minute window. If that is also true, then I agree with the $25%$ since you need to start the form within $5$ minutes of sign in. But is that a plasuible assumption?
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:28
1
$begingroup$
Well, under those assumptions your solution looks good. To be fair, we can make it less artificial, if, say, we imagine that some internal setting (of which the user is unaware) is on a $20$ minute schedule and that the user's start time is entirely independent of this cycle.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:38
$begingroup$
You need to make some assumption on the distribution. Your answer would be correct on the (unlikely) assumption that the thing shuts down regularly every $20$ minutes. A more plausible assumption would be that there is a Poisson distribution here, or that the thing loses connection each minute with independent probability $frac 1{20}$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:21
$begingroup$
You need to make some assumption on the distribution. Your answer would be correct on the (unlikely) assumption that the thing shuts down regularly every $20$ minutes. A more plausible assumption would be that there is a Poisson distribution here, or that the thing loses connection each minute with independent probability $frac 1{20}$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:21
$begingroup$
Note; I suggest doing it both ways (binomial and Poisson). The answers should be very close and you check them against each other.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:23
$begingroup$
Note; I suggest doing it both ways (binomial and Poisson). The answers should be very close and you check them against each other.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:23
$begingroup$
Well, actually the current sign-in times out every 20 minutes and asks the user to sign in again and reloads the page, so yes, periodically. So, 25% is actually correct?
$endgroup$
– K.Nicholas
Jan 31 at 20:24
$begingroup$
Well, actually the current sign-in times out every 20 minutes and asks the user to sign in again and reloads the page, so yes, periodically. So, 25% is actually correct?
$endgroup$
– K.Nicholas
Jan 31 at 20:24
$begingroup$
Really? But then you need to assume that you start the task at a uniformly random point in the $20$ minute window. If that is also true, then I agree with the $25%$ since you need to start the form within $5$ minutes of sign in. But is that a plasuible assumption?
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:28
$begingroup$
Really? But then you need to assume that you start the task at a uniformly random point in the $20$ minute window. If that is also true, then I agree with the $25%$ since you need to start the form within $5$ minutes of sign in. But is that a plasuible assumption?
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:28
1
1
$begingroup$
Well, under those assumptions your solution looks good. To be fair, we can make it less artificial, if, say, we imagine that some internal setting (of which the user is unaware) is on a $20$ minute schedule and that the user's start time is entirely independent of this cycle.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:38
$begingroup$
Well, under those assumptions your solution looks good. To be fair, we can make it less artificial, if, say, we imagine that some internal setting (of which the user is unaware) is on a $20$ minute schedule and that the user's start time is entirely independent of this cycle.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:38
|
show 1 more comment
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$begingroup$
You need to make some assumption on the distribution. Your answer would be correct on the (unlikely) assumption that the thing shuts down regularly every $20$ minutes. A more plausible assumption would be that there is a Poisson distribution here, or that the thing loses connection each minute with independent probability $frac 1{20}$.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:21
$begingroup$
Note; I suggest doing it both ways (binomial and Poisson). The answers should be very close and you check them against each other.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:23
$begingroup$
Well, actually the current sign-in times out every 20 minutes and asks the user to sign in again and reloads the page, so yes, periodically. So, 25% is actually correct?
$endgroup$
– K.Nicholas
Jan 31 at 20:24
$begingroup$
Really? But then you need to assume that you start the task at a uniformly random point in the $20$ minute window. If that is also true, then I agree with the $25%$ since you need to start the form within $5$ minutes of sign in. But is that a plasuible assumption?
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:28
1
$begingroup$
Well, under those assumptions your solution looks good. To be fair, we can make it less artificial, if, say, we imagine that some internal setting (of which the user is unaware) is on a $20$ minute schedule and that the user's start time is entirely independent of this cycle.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Jan 31 at 20:38